As Nigeria moves closer to the 2027 presidential election, political discussions and strategic maneuverings are intensifying. Key figures at the center of these developments include President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and prominent opposition leaders: Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Rabiu Kwankwaso.

Opposition’s strategic discussions

Following the 2023 elections, where a divided opposition failed to unseat Tinubu, there is a growing realization of the need for unity.

Ibrahim Abdullahi, the Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), previously noted that had the party managed internal conflicts better, Obi and Kwankwaso might have remained within the PDP fold—potentially altering the election outcome.

He emphasized ongoing discussions aimed at forming a formidable alliance to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.

However, not all analysts are optimistic about the opposition’s chances.

Activist lawyer, Deji Adeyanju cautioned Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso against investing in another presidential bid, arguing that even a united opposition might struggle against Tinubu’s political influence and Nigeria’s electoral system.

Calls for broader alliances

Beyond Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso, some voices are advocating a more expansive opposition coalition. Salihu Lukman, a former National Vice Chairman (North-West) of the APC, has urged leaders such as former Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, Rotimi Amaechi, Kayode Fayemi, and Nasir El-Rufai to align with the opposition. He stressed that setting aside personal ambitions in favor of building a strong political party is the only way to effectively challenge the APC’s dominance.

The ruling party’s stance

Within the APC, there is both confidence and caution regarding the 2027 elections. While the party acknowledges the opposition’s potential to regroup, it remains convinced that President Tinubu’s administration will continue to deliver on its promises, solidifying public support.

Kano APC Publicity Secretary Ahmed S. Aruwa dismissed concerns about Tinubu’s re-election chances. According to him, Atiku Abubakar’s political career is nearing its end. He also dismissed Kwankwaso’s relevance, arguing that his recent meeting with former Minister, Rauf Aregbesola is merely a search for political survival.

“Kwankwaso has no political party at the moment,” Aruwa stated.

“His popularity in the North is overrated and cannot compare to Tinubu’s economic reforms and war against insecurity.”

What analysts are saying ahead of 2027

Opinions on the likely outcome of the 2027 elections remain divided.

Political analyst, Abdullahi Abba, speaking to us, leaned towards an Atiku presidency. He argued that Atiku’s long-standing political career has helped him build a vast network of supporters and allies across Nigeria.

“His previous roles, including serving as Vice President, have solidified his connections within the party and the broader political landscape,” Abba said.

He also noted that Atiku’s history of forming cross-regional and cross-ethnic alliances strengthens his appeal as a unifying candidate. However, he warned that internal party dynamics could pose a challenge.

“The ambitions of other influential figures, such as Governors Bala Mohammed and Seyi Makinde, may lead to factionalism within the PDP. Managing these dynamics will be crucial for Atiku’s success.”

Dr. Sa’id Dukawa, a political scientist at Bayero University Kano took a broader view, stating that the 2027 election will be an all-out battle with all major players fully engaged.

“Cross-carpeting and political alliances are at an all-time high. Politicians are preparing early, and 2027 will be a game-changer,” Dukawa remarked.

Public sentiment and the road ahead

As political maneuvering intensifies, Nigerians remain divided in their expectations. Many citizens continue to demand a government that can effectively tackle insecurity, economic instability, and corruption.

He echoed growing public sentiment, saying that it may be difficult for Tinubu to retain power unless significant improvements are seen.

“As alliances form and strategies unfold, Nigerians remain the ultimate decision-makers. If they do not see the change they voted for, they will replace Tinubu’s government with a more promising candidate in 2027.”

With the political terrain shifting rapidly, the coming years promise intense activity as both the ruling party and the oppositions position themselves for the decisive battle ahead.

Umar Ibrahim Umar, Executive Director of War Against Injustice, believes economic hardship caused by Tinubu’s reforms may jeopardize his chances in 2027.

“The economic reforms have caused more hardship than relief Subsequent policies have not been any friendlier,” Umar said.

2027: Who will Northerners support?

Many Northerners are yet to decide who will get their votes—if they choose to vote at all.

A few Keke Napep riders expressed frustration over the rising cost of petrol, which was the first major economic policy Nigerians criticized after Tinubu’s May 29 inauguration.

Some of them, speaking to us in Kano complained bitterly about how they had to abandon their higher-purchase agreements because they could no longer meet their daily targets.

One rider laments, “Now a liter of petrol goes for over ₦1,000, and it doesn’t even last.”

Another added, “We are looking for food. Who has time to vote?”

Despite intensified campaigns by Tinubu’s cabinet members and APC bigwigs—along with reports of crashing food prices in some markets in Northern Nigeria, many Nigerians remain skeptical about re-electing the current government.

The current uncertainty leaves them considering alternatives from either the PDP, NNPP, or even the LP.